Gospodarka przyhamuje
Nasz Dziennik, 2007-12-31
Niezależnie od lekkiego przyhamowania gospodarki powinniśmy mieć do czynienia z dalszym spadkiem bezrobocia, choć już nie tak znaczącym jak w ostatnich latach
W 2008 roku nie będziemy mieli do czynienia już z aż tak dynamicznym wzrostem gospodarczym jak w mijającym. Dlatego tym większa jest rola rządu, by przygotował warunki podtrzymania solidnego wzrostu PKB. Z niecierpliwością czekamy więc na konkretne działania nowej ekipy rządzącej, która żyjąc jeszcze zwycięskimi wyborami, koncentruje się raczej na zwiększaniu popularności, próbując wykazać, jakie to rzekomo wielkie szkody wyrządzili naszej gospodarce jej poprzednicy.
Fakty dla utyskujących na poczynania poprzedniego rządu w dziedzinie gospodarki są jednak nieubłagane. Mijający rok zakończymy bowiem z około 6,5-procentowym wzrostem gospodarczym. Biorąc ponadto pod uwagę 6,1-procentowy wzrost produktu krajowego brutto w roku 2006, przez ostatnie dwa lata mieliśmy do czynienia z najdynamiczniejszym wzrostem naszej gospodarki od dziesięciu lat.
Niezależnie jednak, kto znalazłby się u sterów władzy w 2008 roku, musiałby się zmierzyć ze spadkiem koniunktury i zarazem z koniecznością podjęcia działań dla podtrzymania jak największego wzrostu PKB. Wraz z nowym rokiem wejdziemy bowiem w okres pewnego spowolnienia gospodarki. Nie będzie ono jednak aż tak bardzo gwałtowne. Jeszcze poprzedni rząd, przygotowując projekt budżetu państwa na 2008 rok, założył obniżenie dynamiki wzrostu gospodarczego do 5,5 procent. Związane to będzie między innymi z obniżką koniunktury w gospodarce światowej, ale też będzie wynikać z sytuacji wewnątrz naszej gospodarki. Znaczna poprawa koniunktury gospodarczej w poprzednich dwóch latach sprawiła bowiem, że wiele firm zbliżyło się do wyczerpania swoich "mocy produkcyjnych", a ich zwiększeniu skutecznie przeszkadza trudność w pozyskaniu wykwalifikowanych pracowników.
Na podtrzymanie wzrostu gospodarczego niebagatelny wpływ będzie mieć kwestia wykorzystania należnych nam funduszy ze środków unijnych. W tej sytuacji niepokoić musi oczekiwanie beneficjentów tych środków na odpowiednie rządowe decyzje o rozdzieleniu pieniędzy. Tym bardziej że jedynie do końca 2008 roku mamy czas na wykorzystanie pieniędzy przysługujących nam z UE na lata 2004-2006.
Niezależnie od lekkiego przyhamowaniu gospodarki powinniśmy mieć do czynienia z dalszym spadkiem bezrobocia, choć już nie tak znaczącym jak w ostatnich latach.
Poprawa sytuacji gospodarczej w ostatnich latach przełożyła się bowiem na wzrost zatrudnienia. A w ślad ze wzrostem liczby pracujących spadała też stopa bezrobocia. Chociaż jej zmniejszenie stymulowane było dodatkowo wyjazdami naszych rodaków do pracy za granicę. Jeszcze pod koniec 2003 roku mówiliśmy o rekordowym 20-procentowym bezrobociu. Na koniec listopada w urzędach pracy jako bezrobotni zarejestrowanych było już około 11,4 proc. czynnej zawodowo ludności. W przyszłym roku skala spadku bezrobocia nie będzie tak dynamiczna. Rząd zakłada jednak w budżecie państwa, że stopa bezrobocia na koniec 2008 roku powinna jednak osiągnąć wartość jednocyfrową.
Bezpośrednio na własnej skórze możemy natomiast odczuć wzrost inflacji. Będzie on wiązał się m.in. ze wzrostem cen żywności, a spowodowany będzie także podwyżką cen prądu, jak również drożejącą ropą naftową na światowych rynkach. Oczekiwany wzrost inflacji sprawia, że powinniśmy się również przygotować na to, iż Rada Polityki Pieniężnej po raz kolejny podniesie stopy procentowe.
Wielkim wyzwaniem dla rządzących będzie obniżenie wskaźnika zadłużenia naszego kraju. Jak bardzo obciąża nas zaciągany dług, wystarczy zaznaczyć, że wydatki przeznaczane rocznie na jego obsługę przekraczają połowę naszego deficytu budżetowego. O obniżeniu relacji długu publicznego w stosunku do dochodu narodowego jako jednym ze swoich priorytetów mówił nowy minister finansów Jacek Rostowski. Choć zapowiedział, iż chciałby obniżyć tę relację o 4-7 punktów procentowych, to jednak nie usłyszeliśmy, w jaki sposób miałoby się to stać.
W tej sytuacji może jednak cieszyć dużo niższy od planowanego na 2007 r. deficyt budżetowy. Według zapowiedzi Ministerstwa Finansów zamiast blisko 30-miliardowego deficytu będziemy mieli w 2007 r. deficyt rzędu 20-23 mld złotych. A przez wiele miesięcy mijającego roku utrzymywała się nawet nadwyżka budżetowa. W 2008 r. dobra koniunktura już nie będzie tak łaskawa i rząd musi być gotowy na to, iż deficyt nie będzie mniejszy od tego założonego w budżecie państwa, czyli 27-miliardowego.
Artur Kowalski
Monday, December 31, 2007
Thursday, December 27, 2007
Saturday, December 22, 2007
R. Wendell Harrison Distinguished Service Professor
R. Wendell Harrison Distinguished Service Professor
University of Chicago
Co-director, Program on International Security Policy
University of Chicago
E-mail: j-mearsheimer@uchicago.edu
Office Address:
Political Science Department
University of Chicago
5828 S. University Avenue
Chicago, IL 60637
Education:
Ph.D. (Government), Cornell University, 1981
M.A. (Government), Cornell University, 1978
M.A. (International Relations), University of Southern California, 1974
B.S. West Point, 1970
Honors:
"Remains of Education" Address to Class of 2005, University of Chicago, June 10, 2005
E.H. Carr Memorial Lecture, Aberystwyth, UK, October 14, 2004
Graduation Speaker, University of Chicago, June 11-12, 2004
Distinguished Scholar Award, International Studies Association (ISA), March 18, 2004
The Tragedy of Great Power Politics, recipient of Joseph Lepgold Book Prize
Conventional Deterrence, recipient of Edgar S. Furniss, Jr. Book Award
S. Rajaratnam Professorship in Strategic Studies, IDSS, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, 2004
Member, American Academy of Arts and Sciences
Whitney H. Shepardson Fellowship, Council on Foreign Relations, 1998-1999
"Aims of Education" Address to Class of 2001, University of Chicago, September 21, 1997
Quantrell Award for Distinguished Teaching, University of Chicago, 1985
Clark Award for Distinguished Teaching, Cornell University, 1977
PhD dissertation, honorable mention for APSA's 1980 81 Helen Dwight Reid Award
Phi Beta Kappa Visiting Scholar, 1993-1994
George Kistiakowsky Scholar, American Academy of Arts and Sciences, 1986-1987
Academic Positions:
1975-1979, Graduate Student, Cornell University
1979-1980, Research Fellow, Brookings Institution
1980-1982, Research Associate, CFIA, Harvard University
1982-Present, member, Political Science Department, University of Chicago [Assistant Prof., 1982-1984; Associate Prof., 1984-1987; Professor, 1987-1995; Harrison Chair, 1996-Present; Department Chair, 1989-1992.]
1992-1993, Visiting Scholar, Olin Institute for Strategic Studies, Harvard University
Books:
John J. Mearsheimer and Stephen M. Walt, The Israel Lobby and U.S. Foreign Policy (New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2007). Translated into Arabic, Catalan, Danish, Dutch, French, German, Greek, Italian, Japanese, and Spanish.
John J. Mearsheimer, The Tragedy of Great Power Politics (New York: Norton, 2001). Translated into Chinese, Greek, Italian, Japanese, Korean, Portuguese, Romanian, and Serbian.
John J. Mearsheimer, Liddell Hart and the Weight of History (New York: Cornell University Press; London: Brassey's, 1988).
John J. Mearsheimer, Conventional Deterrence (New York: Cornell University Press, 1983).
Russell Hardin, John J. Mearsheimer, Robert E. Goodin, Gerald Dworkin, eds. Nuclear Deterrence: Ethics and Strategy (Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press, 1985)
Articles and Book Chapters:
John J. Mearsheimer, "Structural Realism," in Tim Dunne, Milja Kurki, and Steve Smith, eds., International Relations Theories: Discipline and Diversity (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2006), pp. 71-88.
John J. Mearsheimer, "Forward," in Naoto Yoshikawa and Kazuhiko Noguchi, Perspectives on International Relations (Tokyo: Keiso Text Selection, 2006), pp. i-vi.
John J. Mearsheimer and Stephen M. Walt, "The Israel Lobby," London Review of Books, Vol. 28, No. 6 (March 23, 2006), pp. 3-12. Reprinted in numerous places. Also see John J. Mearsheimer and Stephen M. Walt, "Letters: The Israel Lobby," London Review of Books, Vol. 28, No. 9 (May 11, 2006), pp. 4-5.
John J. Mearsheimer and Stephen M. Walt, "The Israel Lobby and U.S. Foreign Policy," Faculty Research Working Paper No. RWP06-011, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, March 13, 2006. For a revised, updated, and unabridged version, see John J. Mearsheimer and Stephen M. Walt, "The Israel Lobby and U.S. Foreign Policy," Middle East Policy, Vol. 13, No. 3 (Fall 2006), pp. 1-59.
John J. Mearsheimer and Stephen M. Walt, "The War over Israel's Influence," Foreign Policy, No. 155 (July/August 2006), pp. 57-58, 64-66.
John J. Mearsheimer, "China's Unpeaceful Rise," Current History, Vol. 105, No. 690 (April 2006), pp. 160-162.
John J. Mearsheimer, "Conversations in International Relations - Interview with John J. Mearsheimer (Part II)," International Relations, Vol. 20, No. 2 (2006), pp. 231-243.
John J. Mearsheimer, "Conversations in International Relations - Interview with John J. Mearsheimer (Part I)," International Relations, Vol. 20, No. 1 (2006), pp. 105-124.
John J. Mearsheimer, "Zu Diesem Buch," in Carlo Masala, Kenneth N. Waltz: Einführung in seine Theorie und Auseinandersetzung mit seinen Kritikern (Baden-Baden: Nomos, 2005).
John J. Mearsheimer, "Hans Morgenthau and the Iraq War: Realism versus Neo-Conservatism," opendemocracy.com, posted May 19, 2005. Excerpted as "Realism is Right," in The National Interest, No. 81 (Fall 2005), p. 10. Also published as "Hans Morgenthau und der Irakkrieg: Realismus versus Neokonservatismus," in Merkur, Vol. 59, No. 677/678 (September-October 2005), pp. 836-844. Also published as "A Case Study of Iraq - Analogies to Vietnam?" in Christian Hacke, Gottfried-Karl Kindermann, and Kai M. Schellhorn, eds., The Heritage, Challenge, and Future of Realism (Gottingen: V&R Unipress, 2005), pp. 139-148.
John J. Mearsheimer, "The Mores Isms the Better," International Relations, Vol. 19, No. 3 (September 2005), pp. 354-359. [My response to five pieces responding to my "E.H. Carr vs. Idealism" piece]
John J. Mearsheimer, "E.H. Carr vs. Idealism: The Battle Rages On," International Relations, Vol. 19, No. 2 (June 2005), pp. 139-152.
John J. Mearsheimer, "Clash of the Titans," A Debate with Zbigniew Brzezinski on the Rise of China, Foreign Policy, No. 146 (January-February 2005), pp. 46-49.
John J. Mearsheimer, "Real World," letter published in the New Republic, August 9, 2004, p. 4.
John J. Mearsheimer, "Power and Fear in Great Power Politics," in G.O. Mazur, ed., One Hundred Year Commemoration to the Life of Hans Morgenthau (1904-2004) (New York: Semenenko Foundation, 2004), pp. 184-196.
John J. Mearsheimer, "A Self-Enclosed World?" in Ian Shapiro, Rogers M. Smith, and Tarek E. Masoud, eds., Problems and Methods in the Study of Politics (New York: Cambridge University Press, pp. 388-394.
John J. Mearsheimer and Stephen M. Walt, "An Unnecessary War," Foreign Policy, No. 134 (January-February, 2003), pp. 50-59. Reprinted in Australian Financial Review, Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung (Germany), Prospect (UK), Gazeta Wyborcza (Poland), Magyar Narancs (Hungary), Foreign Policy-Arabic Edition, Foreign Policy-Turkish Edition, Gestion (Ecuador), Opposing Viewpoints: Middle East (Gale Group); and in Micah L. Sifry and Christopher Cerf, eds., The Iraq Reader: History, Documents, Opinions (New York: Simon and Schuster, 2003), pp. 414-424.
John J. Mearsheimer and Stephen M. Walt, "Can Saddam Be Contained? History Says Yes," (Cambridge, MA: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, November 12, 2002).
John J. Mearsheimer, "Hearts and Minds," The National Interest, No. 69 (Fall 2002), pp. 13-16.
John J. Mearsheimer, "Realism, the Real World, and the Academy," in Michael Brecher and Frank P. Harvey, eds., Realism and Institutionalism in International Studies (Ann Arbor: The University of Michigan Press, 2002), pp. 23-33.
John J. Mearsheimer, "The Future of the American Pacifier," Foreign Affairs, Vol. 80, No. 5 (September/October, 2001), pp. 46-61.
John J. Mearsheimer, "Kissinger's Wisdom ... and Advice," The National Interest, No. 65 (Fall 2001), pp. 123-129.
John J. Mearsheimer, "The Case for Partitioning Kosovo," in Ted Galen Carpenter, ed., NATO's Empty Victory: A Postmortem on the Balkan War (Washington, DC: CATO Institute, 2000), pp. 133-138.
John J. Mearsheimer, "The Aims of Education," and "Teaching Morality at the Margins," in Philosophy and Literature, Vol. 22, No. 1 (April 1998), pp. 137-155, 193-198.
John J. Mearsheimer, "The Future of America's Continental Commitment," in Geir Lundestad, ed., No End To Alliance: The United States and Western Europe (New York: St. Martin's, 1998), pp. 221-242.
John J. Mearsheimer and Stephen Van Evera, "When Peace Means War," New Republic, December 18, 1995, pp. 16-21.
John J. Mearsheimer, "A Realist Reply," International Security, Vol. 20, No. 1 (Summer 1995), pp. 82-93. [My response to four pieces responding to my "False Promise" piece]
John J. Mearsheimer, "The False Promise of International Institutions," International Security, Vol. 19, No. 3 (Winter 1994/1995), pp. 5-49. Reprinted in Michael E. Brown et al., eds., The Perils of Anarchy: Contemporary Realism and International Security (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1995), pp. 332-376; Michael E. Brown et al., eds., Theories of War and Peace: An International Security Reader (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1998), pp. 329-383; Karen Mingst and Jack Snyder, eds., Essential Readings in World Politics (New York: Norton, 2000); Hans J. Morgenthau, Politics among Nations: The Struggle for Power and Peace, 7th ed, revised by Kenneth W. Thompson and W. David Clinton (New York: McGraw Hill, pp. 569-585. Originally published as Working Paper No. 10 for the Project on the Changing Security Environment and American National Interests, John M. Olin Institute for Strategic Studies, Harvard University, November 1994.
John J. Mearsheimer, "McNamara's War," The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Vol. 49, No. 6 (June/July 1993). Review of Deborah Shapley, Promise and Power: The Life and Times of Robert McNamara (New York: Little, Brown, 1993).
John J. Mearsheimer, "The Case for a Ukrainian Nuclear Deterrent," Foreign Affairs, Vol. 72, No. 3 (Summer 1993), pp. 50-66.
John J. Mearsheimer and Robert A. Pape, "The Answer: A Three-Way Partition Plan for Bosnia And How the U.S. Can Enforce It," The New Republic, June 14, 1993, pp. 22-28.
John J. Mearsheimer, "Disorder Restored," in Graham Allison and Gregory Treverton, eds., Rethinking America's Security: Beyond Cold War to New World Order (New York: Norton, 1992), pp. 213-237.
John J. Mearsheimer, "Back to the Future: Instability in Europe After the Cold War," International Security, Vol. 15, No. 4 (Summer 1990), pp. 5-56. Reprinted in Sean M. Lynn-Jones, ed., The Cold War and After: Prospects for Peace (Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 1991), pp. 141-192; Michael E. Brown et al., eds., The Perils of Anarchy: Contemporary Realism and International Security (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1995), pp. 78-129. and Michael E. Brown et al., eds., Theories of War and Peace: An International Security Reader (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1998), pp. 3-54.
John J. Mearsheimer, "Correspondence: Back to the Future, Part III: Realism and the Realities of European Security," International Security, Vol. 15, No. 3 (Winter 1990/1991), pp. 219-222.
John J. Mearsheimer, "Correspondence: Back to the Future, Part II: International Relations Theory and Post-Cold War Europe," International Security, Vol. 15, No. 2 (Fall 1990), pp. 194-199.
John J. Mearsheimer, "Why We Will Soon Miss the Cold War," The Atlantic, August 1990, pp. 35-50. Reprinted in numerous places. Also see "Letters to the Editor: The Cold War Reconsidered," The Atlantic, November 1990, pp. 8-16.
John J. Mearsheimer, "Assessing the Conventional Balance: The 3:1 Rule and Its Critics," International Security, Vol. 13, No. 4 (Spring 1989), pp. 54-89.
John J. Mearsheimer, "Correspondence: Reassessing Net Assessment," International Security, Vol. 13, No. 4 (Spring 1989), pp. 128-144.
John J. Mearsheimer, "Numbers, Strategy, and the European Balance," International Security, Vol. 12, No. 4 (Spring 1988), pp. 174-185.
John J. Mearsheimer, "A Strategic Misstep: The Maritime Strategy and Deterrence in Europe," International Security, Vol. 11, No. 2 (Fall 1986), pp. 3 57. Reprinted in Robert J. Art and Kenneth N. Waltz, eds., The Use of Force, 3rd ed. (New York: University Press of America, 1988), pp. 590-617; and Steven E. Miller and Stephen Van Evera, eds., Naval Strategy and National Security (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1988), pp. 47-101.
John J. Mearsheimer, "Prospects for Conventional Deterrence in Europe," The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Vol. 41, No. 7 (August 1985), pp. 158 162. Reprinted in Len Ackland and Steven McGuire, eds., Assessing the Nuclear Age (Chicago: Education Foundation for Nuclear Science, 1986), pp. 335-343.
John J. Mearsheimer, "Nuclear Weapons and Deterrence in Europe," International Security, Vol. 9, No. 3 (Winter 1984/1985), pp. 19 46. Reprinted in Hylke Tromp, ed., War in Europe (Aldershot, Eng.: Avebury, 1989), pp. 71-100.
John J. Mearsheimer, "War in the Modern Great Power System, 1495-1975," Journal of Modern History, Vol. 56, No. 4 (December 1984), pp. 710-711. Review essay of Jack S. Levy, War in the Modern Great Power System, 1495-1975 (Lexington: University Press of Kentucky, 1983).
John J. Mearsheimer, "The Military Reform Movement: A Critical Assessment," ORBIS, Vol. 27, No. 2 (Summer 1983), pp. 285-300.
John J. Mearsheimer, "Why the Soviets Can't Win Quickly in Central Europe," International Security, Vol. 7, No. 1 (Summer 1982), pp. 3 39. Reprinted in Robert J. Art and Kenneth N. Waltz, eds., The Use of Force, 3rd ed. (New York: University Press of America, 1988), pp. 442-463; and Steven E. Miller, ed., Conventional Forces and American Defense Policy (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1986), pp. 121-157.
John J. Mearsheimer, "Maneuver, Mobile Defense and the NATO Central Front," International Security, Vol. 6, No. 3 (Winter 1981/1982), pp. 104 122. Reprinted in Steven E. Miller, ed., Conventional Forces and American Defense Policy (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1986), pp. 231-249.
John J. Mearsheimer, "Correspondence" [regarding the "British Generals Talk"], International Security, Vol. 6, No. 3 (Winter 1981/82), pp. 227 229.
John J. Mearsheimer, "The British Generals Talk," International Security, Vol. 6, No. 1 (Summer 1981), pp. 165 184.
John J. Mearsheimer, "Rejoinder" in "Debate on Precision guided Munitions," Survival, Vol. XXII, No. 1 (January February 1980), pp. 20 22.
John J. Mearsheimer, "Precision guided Munitions and Conventional Deterrence," Survival, Vol. XXI, No. 2 (March April 1979), pp. 68 76.
Op-Ed Pieces:
John J. Mearsheimer, "The Rise of China Will Not Be Peaceful at All," The Australian, November 18, 2005.
John J. Mearsheimer and Stephen M. Walt, "Keeping Saddam Hussein in a Box," New York Times, February 2, 2003.
John J. Mearsheimer, "Guns Won't Win the Afghan War," New York Times, November 4, 2001.
John J. Mearsheimer et al., "War with Iraq Is Not in America's National Interest," New York Times paid advertisement, September 26, 2002.
John J. Mearsheimer, "The Impossible Partition," New York Times, January 11, 2001.
John J. Mearsheimer, "India Needs The Bomb," New York Times, March 24, 2000.
John J. Mearsheimer and Stephen Van Evera, "Redraw the Map, Stop the Killing," New York Times, April 19, 1999.
John J. Mearsheimer, "A Peace Agreement That's Bound To Fail," New York Times, October 19, 1998.
John J. Mearsheimer, "Here We Go Again," New York Times, May 17, 1998.
John J. Mearsheimer, "The Only Exit From Bosnia," New York Times, October 7, 1997.
John J. Mearsheimer and Stephen Van Evera, "Hateful Neighbors," New York Times, September 24, 1996.
John J. Mearsheimer, "Shrink Bosnia to Save It," New York Times, March 31, 1993.
John J. Mearsheimer, "Will Iraq Fight or Fold Its Tent? Liberation in Less Than a Week," New York Times, February 8, 1991.
John J. Mearsheimer, "A War the U.S. Can Win - Decisively," Chicago Tribune, January 15, 1991.
Work Experience:
July 1981 July 1982, Executive Secretary, Strategy and Arms Control Seminar, Harvard University.
May 1978 August 1978, Internship at the Arms Control and Disarmament Agency (ACDA), Washington, D.C.
June 1970 August 1975, Officer, U.S. Air Force.
June 1965 July 1966, Enlisted Man, U.S. Army.
Other:
Member, Advisory Committee, National Interest.
Member, Board of Advisors of Foreign Affairs.
Member, Editorial Board, International Security.
Member, Editorial Board, Security Studies.
Member, Editorial Board, International History Review, 1997-2000.
Member, Editorial Board, JFQ: Joint Forces Quarterly.
Member, Editorial Board, Journal of Transatlantic Studies.
Member, Editorial Board, Asian Security.
Member, Editorial Board, China Security.
Member, International Editorial Committee, International Relations.
Member, Council on Foreign Relations (New York).
Member, Chicago Council on Global Affairs.
Member, International Institute for Strategic Studies.
Member, Visiting Committee of MIT Political Science Department, 2004-2008.
Member, International Academic Advisory Board, BESA Center for Strategic Studies, Bar-Ilan University, Israel, 1993-2006.
Member, Board of Advisors, Center on Peace and Liberty, Independent Institute.
Consultant, RAND Corporation, 1985-1986.
Secretary-Treasurer, Inter University Seminar on Armed Forces and Society, 1985-1987.
Senior Fellow, John M. Olin Center for Inquiry Into the Theory and Practice of Democracy, University of Chicago.
Testified before Senate Foreign Relations Committee on October 3, 1985. See U.S. Congress, SFRC, A NATO Strategy for the 1990's, Part 5, 99th Cong., 1st Sess., October 3, 1985.
Testified before Senate Armed Services Committee on October 20, 1987. See U.S. Congress, SASC, Alliance and Defense Capabilities in Europe, 100th Cong., 1st Sess., October 20, 1987. Also reprinted in John T. Rourke, Taking Sides: Clashing Views on Controversial Issues in World Politics, 2nd ed. (Guilford, Ct.: Dushkin, 1989), pp. 224-230.
Section Chairperson for "National Security Policy" for the 1987 American Political Science Association Convention.
Member, Chicago Study Group on U.S. National Interests after the Cold War (Sponsored by Council on Foreign Relations), 1996.
Member, James Madison Award Selection Committee, American Political Science Association, 1999.
Member, Helen Dwight Reid Award Selection Committee, American Political Science Association, 2006.
Co-chair (with John L. Gaddis) of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences' "Committee on History, the Social Sciences and International Security Affairs," 1987-1990.
Associate member of the London School of Economics’ "Cold War Studies Centre" (CWSC).
Member, Selection Committee for President of the University of Chicago, 2005-2006.
Updated: August 09, 2007
University of Chicago
Co-director, Program on International Security Policy
University of Chicago
E-mail: j-mearsheimer@uchicago.edu
Office Address:
Political Science Department
University of Chicago
5828 S. University Avenue
Chicago, IL 60637
Education:
Ph.D. (Government), Cornell University, 1981
M.A. (Government), Cornell University, 1978
M.A. (International Relations), University of Southern California, 1974
B.S. West Point, 1970
Honors:
"Remains of Education" Address to Class of 2005, University of Chicago, June 10, 2005
E.H. Carr Memorial Lecture, Aberystwyth, UK, October 14, 2004
Graduation Speaker, University of Chicago, June 11-12, 2004
Distinguished Scholar Award, International Studies Association (ISA), March 18, 2004
The Tragedy of Great Power Politics, recipient of Joseph Lepgold Book Prize
Conventional Deterrence, recipient of Edgar S. Furniss, Jr. Book Award
S. Rajaratnam Professorship in Strategic Studies, IDSS, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, 2004
Member, American Academy of Arts and Sciences
Whitney H. Shepardson Fellowship, Council on Foreign Relations, 1998-1999
"Aims of Education" Address to Class of 2001, University of Chicago, September 21, 1997
Quantrell Award for Distinguished Teaching, University of Chicago, 1985
Clark Award for Distinguished Teaching, Cornell University, 1977
PhD dissertation, honorable mention for APSA's 1980 81 Helen Dwight Reid Award
Phi Beta Kappa Visiting Scholar, 1993-1994
George Kistiakowsky Scholar, American Academy of Arts and Sciences, 1986-1987
Academic Positions:
1975-1979, Graduate Student, Cornell University
1979-1980, Research Fellow, Brookings Institution
1980-1982, Research Associate, CFIA, Harvard University
1982-Present, member, Political Science Department, University of Chicago [Assistant Prof., 1982-1984; Associate Prof., 1984-1987; Professor, 1987-1995; Harrison Chair, 1996-Present; Department Chair, 1989-1992.]
1992-1993, Visiting Scholar, Olin Institute for Strategic Studies, Harvard University
Books:
John J. Mearsheimer and Stephen M. Walt, The Israel Lobby and U.S. Foreign Policy (New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2007). Translated into Arabic, Catalan, Danish, Dutch, French, German, Greek, Italian, Japanese, and Spanish.
John J. Mearsheimer, The Tragedy of Great Power Politics (New York: Norton, 2001). Translated into Chinese, Greek, Italian, Japanese, Korean, Portuguese, Romanian, and Serbian.
John J. Mearsheimer, Liddell Hart and the Weight of History (New York: Cornell University Press; London: Brassey's, 1988).
John J. Mearsheimer, Conventional Deterrence (New York: Cornell University Press, 1983).
Russell Hardin, John J. Mearsheimer, Robert E. Goodin, Gerald Dworkin, eds. Nuclear Deterrence: Ethics and Strategy (Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press, 1985)
Articles and Book Chapters:
John J. Mearsheimer, "Structural Realism," in Tim Dunne, Milja Kurki, and Steve Smith, eds., International Relations Theories: Discipline and Diversity (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2006), pp. 71-88.
John J. Mearsheimer, "Forward," in Naoto Yoshikawa and Kazuhiko Noguchi, Perspectives on International Relations (Tokyo: Keiso Text Selection, 2006), pp. i-vi.
John J. Mearsheimer and Stephen M. Walt, "The Israel Lobby," London Review of Books, Vol. 28, No. 6 (March 23, 2006), pp. 3-12. Reprinted in numerous places. Also see John J. Mearsheimer and Stephen M. Walt, "Letters: The Israel Lobby," London Review of Books, Vol. 28, No. 9 (May 11, 2006), pp. 4-5.
John J. Mearsheimer and Stephen M. Walt, "The Israel Lobby and U.S. Foreign Policy," Faculty Research Working Paper No. RWP06-011, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, March 13, 2006. For a revised, updated, and unabridged version, see John J. Mearsheimer and Stephen M. Walt, "The Israel Lobby and U.S. Foreign Policy," Middle East Policy, Vol. 13, No. 3 (Fall 2006), pp. 1-59.
John J. Mearsheimer and Stephen M. Walt, "The War over Israel's Influence," Foreign Policy, No. 155 (July/August 2006), pp. 57-58, 64-66.
John J. Mearsheimer, "China's Unpeaceful Rise," Current History, Vol. 105, No. 690 (April 2006), pp. 160-162.
John J. Mearsheimer, "Conversations in International Relations - Interview with John J. Mearsheimer (Part II)," International Relations, Vol. 20, No. 2 (2006), pp. 231-243.
John J. Mearsheimer, "Conversations in International Relations - Interview with John J. Mearsheimer (Part I)," International Relations, Vol. 20, No. 1 (2006), pp. 105-124.
John J. Mearsheimer, "Zu Diesem Buch," in Carlo Masala, Kenneth N. Waltz: Einführung in seine Theorie und Auseinandersetzung mit seinen Kritikern (Baden-Baden: Nomos, 2005).
John J. Mearsheimer, "Hans Morgenthau and the Iraq War: Realism versus Neo-Conservatism," opendemocracy.com, posted May 19, 2005. Excerpted as "Realism is Right," in The National Interest, No. 81 (Fall 2005), p. 10. Also published as "Hans Morgenthau und der Irakkrieg: Realismus versus Neokonservatismus," in Merkur, Vol. 59, No. 677/678 (September-October 2005), pp. 836-844. Also published as "A Case Study of Iraq - Analogies to Vietnam?" in Christian Hacke, Gottfried-Karl Kindermann, and Kai M. Schellhorn, eds., The Heritage, Challenge, and Future of Realism (Gottingen: V&R Unipress, 2005), pp. 139-148.
John J. Mearsheimer, "The Mores Isms the Better," International Relations, Vol. 19, No. 3 (September 2005), pp. 354-359. [My response to five pieces responding to my "E.H. Carr vs. Idealism" piece]
John J. Mearsheimer, "E.H. Carr vs. Idealism: The Battle Rages On," International Relations, Vol. 19, No. 2 (June 2005), pp. 139-152.
John J. Mearsheimer, "Clash of the Titans," A Debate with Zbigniew Brzezinski on the Rise of China, Foreign Policy, No. 146 (January-February 2005), pp. 46-49.
John J. Mearsheimer, "Real World," letter published in the New Republic, August 9, 2004, p. 4.
John J. Mearsheimer, "Power and Fear in Great Power Politics," in G.O. Mazur, ed., One Hundred Year Commemoration to the Life of Hans Morgenthau (1904-2004) (New York: Semenenko Foundation, 2004), pp. 184-196.
John J. Mearsheimer, "A Self-Enclosed World?" in Ian Shapiro, Rogers M. Smith, and Tarek E. Masoud, eds., Problems and Methods in the Study of Politics (New York: Cambridge University Press, pp. 388-394.
John J. Mearsheimer and Stephen M. Walt, "An Unnecessary War," Foreign Policy, No. 134 (January-February, 2003), pp. 50-59. Reprinted in Australian Financial Review, Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung (Germany), Prospect (UK), Gazeta Wyborcza (Poland), Magyar Narancs (Hungary), Foreign Policy-Arabic Edition, Foreign Policy-Turkish Edition, Gestion (Ecuador), Opposing Viewpoints: Middle East (Gale Group); and in Micah L. Sifry and Christopher Cerf, eds., The Iraq Reader: History, Documents, Opinions (New York: Simon and Schuster, 2003), pp. 414-424.
John J. Mearsheimer and Stephen M. Walt, "Can Saddam Be Contained? History Says Yes," (Cambridge, MA: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, November 12, 2002).
John J. Mearsheimer, "Hearts and Minds," The National Interest, No. 69 (Fall 2002), pp. 13-16.
John J. Mearsheimer, "Realism, the Real World, and the Academy," in Michael Brecher and Frank P. Harvey, eds., Realism and Institutionalism in International Studies (Ann Arbor: The University of Michigan Press, 2002), pp. 23-33.
John J. Mearsheimer, "The Future of the American Pacifier," Foreign Affairs, Vol. 80, No. 5 (September/October, 2001), pp. 46-61.
John J. Mearsheimer, "Kissinger's Wisdom ... and Advice," The National Interest, No. 65 (Fall 2001), pp. 123-129.
John J. Mearsheimer, "The Case for Partitioning Kosovo," in Ted Galen Carpenter, ed., NATO's Empty Victory: A Postmortem on the Balkan War (Washington, DC: CATO Institute, 2000), pp. 133-138.
John J. Mearsheimer, "The Aims of Education," and "Teaching Morality at the Margins," in Philosophy and Literature, Vol. 22, No. 1 (April 1998), pp. 137-155, 193-198.
John J. Mearsheimer, "The Future of America's Continental Commitment," in Geir Lundestad, ed., No End To Alliance: The United States and Western Europe (New York: St. Martin's, 1998), pp. 221-242.
John J. Mearsheimer and Stephen Van Evera, "When Peace Means War," New Republic, December 18, 1995, pp. 16-21.
John J. Mearsheimer, "A Realist Reply," International Security, Vol. 20, No. 1 (Summer 1995), pp. 82-93. [My response to four pieces responding to my "False Promise" piece]
John J. Mearsheimer, "The False Promise of International Institutions," International Security, Vol. 19, No. 3 (Winter 1994/1995), pp. 5-49. Reprinted in Michael E. Brown et al., eds., The Perils of Anarchy: Contemporary Realism and International Security (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1995), pp. 332-376; Michael E. Brown et al., eds., Theories of War and Peace: An International Security Reader (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1998), pp. 329-383; Karen Mingst and Jack Snyder, eds., Essential Readings in World Politics (New York: Norton, 2000); Hans J. Morgenthau, Politics among Nations: The Struggle for Power and Peace, 7th ed, revised by Kenneth W. Thompson and W. David Clinton (New York: McGraw Hill, pp. 569-585. Originally published as Working Paper No. 10 for the Project on the Changing Security Environment and American National Interests, John M. Olin Institute for Strategic Studies, Harvard University, November 1994.
John J. Mearsheimer, "McNamara's War," The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Vol. 49, No. 6 (June/July 1993). Review of Deborah Shapley, Promise and Power: The Life and Times of Robert McNamara (New York: Little, Brown, 1993).
John J. Mearsheimer, "The Case for a Ukrainian Nuclear Deterrent," Foreign Affairs, Vol. 72, No. 3 (Summer 1993), pp. 50-66.
John J. Mearsheimer and Robert A. Pape, "The Answer: A Three-Way Partition Plan for Bosnia And How the U.S. Can Enforce It," The New Republic, June 14, 1993, pp. 22-28.
John J. Mearsheimer, "Disorder Restored," in Graham Allison and Gregory Treverton, eds., Rethinking America's Security: Beyond Cold War to New World Order (New York: Norton, 1992), pp. 213-237.
John J. Mearsheimer, "Back to the Future: Instability in Europe After the Cold War," International Security, Vol. 15, No. 4 (Summer 1990), pp. 5-56. Reprinted in Sean M. Lynn-Jones, ed., The Cold War and After: Prospects for Peace (Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 1991), pp. 141-192; Michael E. Brown et al., eds., The Perils of Anarchy: Contemporary Realism and International Security (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1995), pp. 78-129. and Michael E. Brown et al., eds., Theories of War and Peace: An International Security Reader (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1998), pp. 3-54.
John J. Mearsheimer, "Correspondence: Back to the Future, Part III: Realism and the Realities of European Security," International Security, Vol. 15, No. 3 (Winter 1990/1991), pp. 219-222.
John J. Mearsheimer, "Correspondence: Back to the Future, Part II: International Relations Theory and Post-Cold War Europe," International Security, Vol. 15, No. 2 (Fall 1990), pp. 194-199.
John J. Mearsheimer, "Why We Will Soon Miss the Cold War," The Atlantic, August 1990, pp. 35-50. Reprinted in numerous places. Also see "Letters to the Editor: The Cold War Reconsidered," The Atlantic, November 1990, pp. 8-16.
John J. Mearsheimer, "Assessing the Conventional Balance: The 3:1 Rule and Its Critics," International Security, Vol. 13, No. 4 (Spring 1989), pp. 54-89.
John J. Mearsheimer, "Correspondence: Reassessing Net Assessment," International Security, Vol. 13, No. 4 (Spring 1989), pp. 128-144.
John J. Mearsheimer, "Numbers, Strategy, and the European Balance," International Security, Vol. 12, No. 4 (Spring 1988), pp. 174-185.
John J. Mearsheimer, "A Strategic Misstep: The Maritime Strategy and Deterrence in Europe," International Security, Vol. 11, No. 2 (Fall 1986), pp. 3 57. Reprinted in Robert J. Art and Kenneth N. Waltz, eds., The Use of Force, 3rd ed. (New York: University Press of America, 1988), pp. 590-617; and Steven E. Miller and Stephen Van Evera, eds., Naval Strategy and National Security (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1988), pp. 47-101.
John J. Mearsheimer, "Prospects for Conventional Deterrence in Europe," The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Vol. 41, No. 7 (August 1985), pp. 158 162. Reprinted in Len Ackland and Steven McGuire, eds., Assessing the Nuclear Age (Chicago: Education Foundation for Nuclear Science, 1986), pp. 335-343.
John J. Mearsheimer, "Nuclear Weapons and Deterrence in Europe," International Security, Vol. 9, No. 3 (Winter 1984/1985), pp. 19 46. Reprinted in Hylke Tromp, ed., War in Europe (Aldershot, Eng.: Avebury, 1989), pp. 71-100.
John J. Mearsheimer, "War in the Modern Great Power System, 1495-1975," Journal of Modern History, Vol. 56, No. 4 (December 1984), pp. 710-711. Review essay of Jack S. Levy, War in the Modern Great Power System, 1495-1975 (Lexington: University Press of Kentucky, 1983).
John J. Mearsheimer, "The Military Reform Movement: A Critical Assessment," ORBIS, Vol. 27, No. 2 (Summer 1983), pp. 285-300.
John J. Mearsheimer, "Why the Soviets Can't Win Quickly in Central Europe," International Security, Vol. 7, No. 1 (Summer 1982), pp. 3 39. Reprinted in Robert J. Art and Kenneth N. Waltz, eds., The Use of Force, 3rd ed. (New York: University Press of America, 1988), pp. 442-463; and Steven E. Miller, ed., Conventional Forces and American Defense Policy (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1986), pp. 121-157.
John J. Mearsheimer, "Maneuver, Mobile Defense and the NATO Central Front," International Security, Vol. 6, No. 3 (Winter 1981/1982), pp. 104 122. Reprinted in Steven E. Miller, ed., Conventional Forces and American Defense Policy (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1986), pp. 231-249.
John J. Mearsheimer, "Correspondence" [regarding the "British Generals Talk"], International Security, Vol. 6, No. 3 (Winter 1981/82), pp. 227 229.
John J. Mearsheimer, "The British Generals Talk," International Security, Vol. 6, No. 1 (Summer 1981), pp. 165 184.
John J. Mearsheimer, "Rejoinder" in "Debate on Precision guided Munitions," Survival, Vol. XXII, No. 1 (January February 1980), pp. 20 22.
John J. Mearsheimer, "Precision guided Munitions and Conventional Deterrence," Survival, Vol. XXI, No. 2 (March April 1979), pp. 68 76.
Op-Ed Pieces:
John J. Mearsheimer, "The Rise of China Will Not Be Peaceful at All," The Australian, November 18, 2005.
John J. Mearsheimer and Stephen M. Walt, "Keeping Saddam Hussein in a Box," New York Times, February 2, 2003.
John J. Mearsheimer, "Guns Won't Win the Afghan War," New York Times, November 4, 2001.
John J. Mearsheimer et al., "War with Iraq Is Not in America's National Interest," New York Times paid advertisement, September 26, 2002.
John J. Mearsheimer, "The Impossible Partition," New York Times, January 11, 2001.
John J. Mearsheimer, "India Needs The Bomb," New York Times, March 24, 2000.
John J. Mearsheimer and Stephen Van Evera, "Redraw the Map, Stop the Killing," New York Times, April 19, 1999.
John J. Mearsheimer, "A Peace Agreement That's Bound To Fail," New York Times, October 19, 1998.
John J. Mearsheimer, "Here We Go Again," New York Times, May 17, 1998.
John J. Mearsheimer, "The Only Exit From Bosnia," New York Times, October 7, 1997.
John J. Mearsheimer and Stephen Van Evera, "Hateful Neighbors," New York Times, September 24, 1996.
John J. Mearsheimer, "Shrink Bosnia to Save It," New York Times, March 31, 1993.
John J. Mearsheimer, "Will Iraq Fight or Fold Its Tent? Liberation in Less Than a Week," New York Times, February 8, 1991.
John J. Mearsheimer, "A War the U.S. Can Win - Decisively," Chicago Tribune, January 15, 1991.
Work Experience:
July 1981 July 1982, Executive Secretary, Strategy and Arms Control Seminar, Harvard University.
May 1978 August 1978, Internship at the Arms Control and Disarmament Agency (ACDA), Washington, D.C.
June 1970 August 1975, Officer, U.S. Air Force.
June 1965 July 1966, Enlisted Man, U.S. Army.
Other:
Member, Advisory Committee, National Interest.
Member, Board of Advisors of Foreign Affairs.
Member, Editorial Board, International Security.
Member, Editorial Board, Security Studies.
Member, Editorial Board, International History Review, 1997-2000.
Member, Editorial Board, JFQ: Joint Forces Quarterly.
Member, Editorial Board, Journal of Transatlantic Studies.
Member, Editorial Board, Asian Security.
Member, Editorial Board, China Security.
Member, International Editorial Committee, International Relations.
Member, Council on Foreign Relations (New York).
Member, Chicago Council on Global Affairs.
Member, International Institute for Strategic Studies.
Member, Visiting Committee of MIT Political Science Department, 2004-2008.
Member, International Academic Advisory Board, BESA Center for Strategic Studies, Bar-Ilan University, Israel, 1993-2006.
Member, Board of Advisors, Center on Peace and Liberty, Independent Institute.
Consultant, RAND Corporation, 1985-1986.
Secretary-Treasurer, Inter University Seminar on Armed Forces and Society, 1985-1987.
Senior Fellow, John M. Olin Center for Inquiry Into the Theory and Practice of Democracy, University of Chicago.
Testified before Senate Foreign Relations Committee on October 3, 1985. See U.S. Congress, SFRC, A NATO Strategy for the 1990's, Part 5, 99th Cong., 1st Sess., October 3, 1985.
Testified before Senate Armed Services Committee on October 20, 1987. See U.S. Congress, SASC, Alliance and Defense Capabilities in Europe, 100th Cong., 1st Sess., October 20, 1987. Also reprinted in John T. Rourke, Taking Sides: Clashing Views on Controversial Issues in World Politics, 2nd ed. (Guilford, Ct.: Dushkin, 1989), pp. 224-230.
Section Chairperson for "National Security Policy" for the 1987 American Political Science Association Convention.
Member, Chicago Study Group on U.S. National Interests after the Cold War (Sponsored by Council on Foreign Relations), 1996.
Member, James Madison Award Selection Committee, American Political Science Association, 1999.
Member, Helen Dwight Reid Award Selection Committee, American Political Science Association, 2006.
Co-chair (with John L. Gaddis) of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences' "Committee on History, the Social Sciences and International Security Affairs," 1987-1990.
Associate member of the London School of Economics’ "Cold War Studies Centre" (CWSC).
Member, Selection Committee for President of the University of Chicago, 2005-2006.
Updated: August 09, 2007
Monday, December 17, 2007
Allah alim People are only to help You.
Poland and Polish people we only want good for your great IRAQ
Allah alim
Please take care of my brothers, Polish army soldiers, some of them come from my home city in Poland
Please contact all friends do not attack Polish People in Iraq.
I wish all people from the great country of IRAQ with 5 thousand years of history all the best!!
One more time.
We as the Polish People are only to help You.
Poland did not got any contract like others.
It was long time polish slogan “for your freedom and ours”
Quick Lesson of Polish History. Worth to see
Arabian Horse from Poland
Ogier Tullamore from Poland
Allah alim
Please take care of my brothers, Polish army soldiers, some of them come from my home city in Poland
Please contact all friends do not attack Polish People in Iraq.
I wish all people from the great country of IRAQ with 5 thousand years of history all the best!!
One more time.
We as the Polish People are only to help You.
Poland did not got any contract like others.
It was long time polish slogan “for your freedom and ours”
Quick Lesson of Polish History. Worth to see
Arabian Horse from Poland
Ogier Tullamore from Poland
Wednesday, December 12, 2007
Poland - making a difference
MAREK GRECHUTA - Gdy zabraknie ci usmiechu...
Hello from Lech Bajan polish in Washington DC.
All our friends in Iran and Iraq.
Please do what you can to save the polish troops Iraq and Afganistan.
Please contact all your friends and do that.
Poland is only to help you. "For our freedom and yours" and thank you all Persian friends for the help during the World War II.
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